US Economic Data "CPI Preview Update: Small edge upwards" Detmeister

Research evidence excerpt

US Economic Data "CPI Preview Update: Small edge upwards" Detmeister

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US Economic Data Economics

AmericasCPI Preview Update: Small edge upwards

Alan Detmeister

Economist

Additional data edges up May core CPI projection to 0.19% alan.detmeister@ubs.com

+1-212-713 1222

Since last Wednesday's US CPI Preview we received additional data relevant for the

May and June CPI projections. Bringing this additional data into our forecast raised Jonathan Pingle

Economist our seasonally-adjusted May core CPI projection slightly from 0.17% to 0.19%.

jonathan.pingle@ubs.com

12-month core CPI inflation in May is projected at 2.83%. +1-212-713 2225

JD Power Used Car Guide data and airfares from our UBS Evidence Lab team Abigail Watt

did not lead to any changes in our forecast. Economist

abigail.watt@ubs.com

Hotel prices from Smith Travel Research showed a notable decline post- +1-212-882 6929

Memorial Day in the final week of May and lowered our lodging away from

Amanda Wilcox

home projection. Nonetheless, we continue to think the risks are to the upside

for lodging away from home from timing differences between the STR data amanda.wilcox@ubs.com

(priced at time of stay) versus the CPI (priced at time of booking), which could +1-212-713 3899

pull world cup impacts into tomorrow's CPI.

Jalen Nichols

The US consumer services output price diffusion index from S&P Global Economist

showed that the share of consumer services firms raising prices ticking up in jalen.nichols@ubs.com

+1-212-882 6905 May to its second highest level since 2009 (below only May last year) outside of

pandemic-driven observations from April 2021 to September 2022.

Nielsen data from grocery, drug, and convenience stores show non-food price