Swiss Real Estate "An empirical approach to assess Swiss real estate val..."

Research evidence excerpt

Swiss Real Estate "An empirical approach to assess Swiss real estate val..."

Global Research

9 June 2026ab

Swiss Real Estate Equities

SwitzerlandAn empirical approach to assess Swiss real estate

valuations Real Estate

Tommaso Operto, CFA

Analyst

tommaso.operto@ubs.com

How much is Macro vs Micro? +41-44-239 2049

Amid recent underperformance of Swiss real estate shares (-9% over the last 3 months Charles Boissier, CFA

vs +5% for the SPI), we update our recently developed empirical model (link to note). Analyst

While valuation levels have clearly started to compress, our empirical model continues to charles.boissier@ubs.com

suggest overvaluation for all four companies that we look at. We continue to see limited +44-20-7568 4415

growth prospects but see valuation support from continued low rates and CHF strength. Franziska Fischer

As such, we broadly see our Neutral stance confirmed by this analysis. Economist

franziska.fischer@ubs.com

What we have done +41-44-239 2054

We leverage the expertise of the UBS Empirical Scientific Approaches (ESA) team to build

empirical models on data for Swiss Real Estate shares. The models establish relationships

between the macro environment and share prices. These relationships are then used to

compute forecasts on future share price evolution based on our estimates for macro

economic factors. Taking the models to the data shows that apart from the financial

crisis and in the run up toward COVID-driven years in 2020, the models' predictions are

relatively close to the actual values of the share prices for the firms at hand.

Not one size fits all

We estimate three different models. Model 1, the most parsimonious one includes the

macroeconomic factors and company-fixed effects. Model 2, which is Model 1