Airlines & Aerospace "Plane spotting - Spain/Italy dominate European cap..."

Research evidence excerpt

Airlines & Aerospace "Plane spotting - Spain/Italy dominate European cap..."

Powered by Lab Global9 JuneResearch2026ab Evidence UBS YES

Airlines & Aerospace Equities

GlobalPlane spotting - Spain/Italy dominate European

capacity growth leadership in May Airlines

Amal Patel

Analyst

amal.patel@ubs.com

UBS Evidence Lab Global Airline Traffic Monitor +44-20-7568 3973

We use data from the UBS Evidence Lab Global Airline Traffic Monitor (> Access dataset). Jarrod Castle, CFA

This monthly monitor aims to aggregate global commercial air traffic data at the flight Analyst

level, with each flight then mapped to an airline operator, country/region of take-off and jarrod.castle@ubs.com

operation, engine type, aircraft manufacturer and body type. For each flight, a measure +44-20-7568 8883

of passenger-carrying capacity is calculated, based on available seat kilometres (ASK). Ivar Billfalk-Kelly

We think the data allows us to estimate the extent of the global airline traffic recovery Analyst

before traffic is announced or estimated, which is useful for predicting revenues. The ivar.billfalk-kelly@ubs.com

time series began in January 2018 and extends to the 31st May 2026. +44-20-7568 3240

Cristian Nedelcu, CFA

European capacity growth dominated by Spain/Italy; China/US remains Analyst

subdued cristian.nedelcu@ubs.com

Whilst Europe capacity is down -2% y/y in May (vs. -3% y/y in April), we note +44-20-7568 4375

diverging trends. Growth leadership is dominated by Spain/Italy, where capacity Ian Douglas-Pennant

growth accelerated to 4%/5% y/y in May (vs. 2%/1% y/y. respectively in April). Analyst

Elsewhere, France/UK y/y capacity growth improved vs. the previous month, ian.douglas-pennant@ubs.com

although still remained in negative territory at -3%/-2% y/y respectively (vs.