Global Oil and Gas "Hormuz tracker: day 101" Patricot

Research evidence excerpt

Global Oil and Gas "Hormuz tracker: day 101" Patricot

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Global Oil and Gas Equities

GlobalHormuz tracker: day 101

Oil Companies, Major

Henri Patricot, CFA

President Trump still seeing deal in "days" Analyst

US President Donald Trump said again today that a deal with Iran was just "days away" henri.patricot@ubs.com

and that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen immediately (link), maintaining hope +33-14-888 3033

around a deal coming soon. Israel and Iran have stopped attacking each other but new Nayoung Kim

Israeli attacks on southern Lebanon were reported today (link). Analyst

nayoung.kim@ubs.com

Only one LNG carrier going through +44-20-7568 4010

The latest UBS Evidence Lab data (> Access Dataset) shows that only one LNG carrier Joshua Stone

crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, exiting the Gulf. This is by our account the 7th Analyst

LNG carrier leaving the Gulf since the start of the conflict. The June average is still in line joshua.stone@ubs.com

+44-20-7901 5588

with April-May at ~3 but still significantly lower than February's daily average of nearly

50 crossings. On a volume basis, exports were down to 0.7Mboe/d yesterday and are still Josh Silverstein

at 1.2Mboe/d so far in June, close to the 1.3Mboe/d average in May (Figure 4EstimatedoilandgasflowsexitingtheGulf,basedonDWT,inMboe/d). Flows Analyst

through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait were close to average yesterday (Figure 11Oil&gastankerspasingthroughtheBab-el-MandebStrait,innumberofshipsenteringandexitingtheRedSea). josh.silverstein@ubs.com

+1-212-713 3513

Another small loading in Iran; bypass volumes remain high Tom Allen

Analyst

There was one small crude loading in Iran yesterday, bringing the June average to

tom.allen@ubs.com