HOLT Healthcare "Novo Discount at 15yr Peak: Solving the GLP-1 Pricing P..."

Research evidence excerpt

HOLT Healthcare "Novo Discount at 15yr Peak: Solving the GLP-1 Pricing P..."

HOLT Healthcare UBS Research

IBES Consensus thorugh 2028e, and

Valuation, convergence towards Developed Peers? assessed on a 10 year horizon, Novo

On Economic P/E, Novo Nordisk and Lilly have both converged toward the developed Nordisk is priced to go ex-sales

peer median, and are now trading at 15x and 35x Economic PE, respectively (down from alongside margin compression to

peaks of 49x and 74x). Novo now trades at a discount to developed peers for the first below 15yr levels (See here). By

time since 2019, while the valuation spread between Lilly and Novo widened in Q1 2026 contrast, Lilly (now with and eCAP) is

to its largest level since the record highs of February 2024. priced to deliver ~4.5% annual sales

growth over the same period (See

Figure 7: Economic PE: Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk versus Developed Peers here)

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Source: UBS HOLT.

UBS Pharma Values

We combine HOLT’s objective, systematic methodology with UBS Research's Pharma

Values to analyze the product-by-product composition of each company’s value,

providing a comprehensive view of relative valuation between LLY and NOVO. This

approach applies a Net Present Value (NPV) framework across the lifecycle of each

individual drug. The methodology enables a granular decomposition of company value

at the asset level, supporting classification across dimensions such as pipeline vs.

marketed products, as well as replacement risk groupings.

In Figure 8, we present the composition of each company’s total NPV as a percentage of

enterprise value (EV). This highlights that both LLY and NOVO trade at a premium to the

average global major peer group based on Pharma Values.