Brazilian Retailers "UBS Shopping Cart: US tariffs on consumption; Inter..."

Research evidence excerpt

Brazilian Retailers "UBS Shopping Cart: US tariffs on consumption; Inter..."

Global Research

9 June 2026ab

Brazilian Retailers Equities

AmericasUBS Shopping Cart: US tariffs on consumption;

Interest expenses impact on retail Consumer, Cyclical

Vinicius Strano, CFA

Analyst

vinicius.strano@ubs.com

US tariffs could cut Brazilian household consumption up to R$38bn +55-11-2767 6688

According to Mercado & Consumo, Brazil could lose between R$15bn and R$38bn in Isabella Lamas

household consumption as a result of tariffs proposed by the U.S. Trade Associate Analyst

Representative (USTR). The measures include a 25% surcharge linked to bilateral isabella.lamas@ubs.com

disputes involving Pix, the judiciary, and environmental policies, as well as an +55-11-2767 6836

additional 12.5% tariff related to alleged shortcomings in combating forced labor. Lucca Biasi

The proposed tariffs could put US$9.5bn of Brazilian industrial exports under Associate Analyst

pressure and reduce Brazil’s GDP growth by 0.3p.p. to 0.6p.p. in 2026. In the central lucca.biasi@ubs.com

scenario, household consumption is expected to decline by around R$22.5bn, +55-11-2767 6173

including R$7bn in core retail and R$10.5bn in broader retail categories. Pedro Perone

Associate Analyst

Interest expenses consume 45% of Retail EBITDA in 2025 pedro.perone@ubs.com

According to a survey by Alvarez & Marsal (A&M), interest expenses consumed 45% +55-11-2767 6007

of EBITDA among Brazil’s 40 largest consumer and retail companies in 2025 (vs.

33.3% in 2024; vs. 20% in 2023). Financial expenses reached R$23.3bn in the period

(+50% YoY), and the challenging environment is expected to persist in 2026, as

limited prospects for meaningful interest rate cuts continue to pressure