Vail Resorts: 3Q26 Review: A Deeper Crevasse

Research evidence excerpt

Vail Resorts: 3Q26 Review: A Deeper Crevasse

Barclays | Vail Resorts

We remain negative on MTN here. MTN’s model for growth has historically been inextricably

linked to pass growth by design, and so in our view, tonight's update effectively downgrades

the range of most likely outcomes for FY27, along with adding inherently more risk to

guidance (next quarter), given a relatively higher portion of lift revenue is likely to come

through lift tickets, rather than the pass, and thus embeds relatively more weather risk. Our

2027FY EBITDA comes down significantly, to $848m from $900m, which is based on ~2/3 of

2026’s lost visits being recovered. Longer term, certain stats given today, like 8%-points of

relative outperformance in 2025-2026 lift ticket sales versus the industry, indicates that CEO

Katz’s new initiatives are at least having a positive impact on market share, and the drags last

season and this season are likely/mostly due to factors outside of MTN’s control. Still, our

longer-term thesis remains that without large-scale (accretive) M&A, this remains a structurally

low growth business that therefore already trades at a full multiple. We cut our PT to $119, -$19,

based on our EBITDA cut, and remain UW.

3Q rundown. MTN reported EBITDA of $585m, which was 2%/1% below our/consensus'

estimates, on net revenue of $1.205b, -4%/-1% vs. us/Street. Segment wise, Mountain EBITDA of

$580m was -2%/flat vs. our/Consensus' estimates of $591m/$579m and Real Estate EBITDA of -

$1m was also below our estimates of -$4m, though flat vs. Street. Lodging EBITDA of $7m came

in below our/Street's estimates of $12m/$10m. On the cost side, Labor expense of $238m and

G&A, Resort fees and Other of $283m came in 8%/3% better than our estimates, while Retail

Cost of Sales came in flat vs.