Americas Agribusiness: Cattle Check-In: Are Chances of a 2026 Rebuild Drying Up?

Research evidence excerpt

Americas Agribusiness: Cattle Check-In: Are Chances of a 2026 Rebuild Drying Up?

Equity Research

9 June 2026

Americas Agribusiness

Cattle Check-In: Are Chances of a

2026 Rebuild Drying Up?

The chances of a cattle rebuild beginning in 2026 are Americas Agribusiness

weakening as prevailing slaughter data and worsening NEUTRAL Unchanged

drought conditions limit herd retention. Rising costs and Americas Agribusiness

Benjamin M. Theurerdisease disruptions pressure supply, pushing beef profit

recovery out to 2028 and implying prolonged losses for +52benjamin.theurer@barclays.com55 5241 3322

processors. BCCB, Mexico

Ryan Lavin

+1 212 526 8713

ryan.lavin1@barclays.com

BCI, US

THE 2026 EXTEL SURVEY IS NOW OPEN Rahi Parikh

+1 212 526 0150

Support our industry-leading analysts with 5-Star rahi.parikh@barclays.com BCI, US

votes in this year’s Extel All-America Research Reid Monahan

Survey +1reid.monahan@barclays.com212 526 7506

Vote Now View Analysts

January optimism around the cattle survey may have been preemptive. While the herd

count decline saw a meaningful slowdown and beef heifers replacement increased YoY, data as

2026 progresses has been less positive. Most notably, we find that the rate of female livestock

slaughter and percent of heifers on feed – two leading indicators for a full-on rebuild – continue

to trend above the historical baseline replacement levels. Although genetics and the livestock

value chain have improved in the ~10 years since the last rebuild, negative underlying slaughter

trends are a potential warning sign for a delay, especially combined with increasingly weaker

comments from key beef processors. As such, we cast doubt on the recovery timeline of beef

profits and believe it may occur later than the estimated 2H27, now seeing it as a narrative