Bayer AG: Consumer Healthcare scenario analysis; post-litigation, structural optionality offers upside

Research evidence excerpt

Bayer AG: Consumer Healthcare scenario analysis; post-litigation, structural optionality offers upside

Barclays | Bayer AG

consumer health business". We also note a recent overhaul of the BAYN Consumer Health

leadership team on 8 June 2026, adding new global heads across marketing, analytics and

commercial functions alongside a new US President, which we suggest aligns with our view that

management remains actively focused on remaining adaptable and maximising growth.

Noting CEO Bill Anderson's initial comments at 3Q23 (Nov 2023) that he is "not wedded to one

structure", and would "pursue the best course to ensure maximum value creation", which could

include "a separation of either the Consumer Health or Crop Science division", these structural

plans were paused at the company's March 2024 CMD for "24-26 months" as the company

focused on operational improvements, debt reduction and addressing litigation. While

reports earlier this year (Reuters, 02/06/26) confirm the company is not considering spinning off

Monsanto as the company focuses on its resolving near-term litigation, given we are now more

than 24 months from the March FY24 CMD, with an improving Consumer Healthcare

environment and a more cash-generative Pharma/Crop Science division and a potential near-

term resolution of its litigation overhang, we believe these structural questions could be

revisited by management by the end of the year.

To better understand the impact, we conduct a scenario analysis of potential sale or spin-off

structural options, refreshing the team's analysis from 2023 (see What if Bayer were to sell its

Consumer Health business?, 25/01/23). Our SOTP scenario analysis suggests BAYN shares

could be worth €53-60/sh following a potential divestment of its consumer health division,

vs.