Barclays T.R.U.C.K.S. – Tracking Real-time U.S. Cargo KPIs Systematically

Research evidence excerpt

Barclays T.R.U.C.K.S. – Tracking Real-time U.S. Cargo KPIs Systematically

Equity Research

8 June 2026

North America Transportation

Barclays T.R.U.C.K.S. – Tracking

Real-time U.S. Cargo KPIs

North America TransportationSystematically

POSITIVE

TL spot rates sequentially steady, up 40-50% from last year; North America Transportation

Eric Morgan, CFALTL updates point to improving tonnage comps and healthy

pricing in May. +1eric.morgan@barclays.com212 526 9642

BCI, US

Brandon R. Oglenski

+1 212 526 8903

brandon.oglenski@barclays.com

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What's new this week (Figure 1): Truckload (TL) spot rates were sequentially mixed, with DAT

up 2% and ITS down 1% from the prior week. Compared to last year, the measures were up 43%

and 52%, respectively, reflective of ongoing tightness in the market as well as easing annual

comparisons. The initial June readings are about 8% ahead of the May average, which is about

in line with typical seasonality for the full month of June (avg. up 5-10% sequentially). With

respect to supply, Class 8 net orders were sequentially flat in May (in line with seasonality) but

once again more than double last year's level as the industry continues to lap depressed orders

from 2025. Meanwhile, trucking employment stepped lower sequentially in May (largely

reversing the April uptick) and remains down in the 1-2% range from last year. Within LTL, last

week's intra-quarter updates highlighted improving annual tonnage comparisons in May, with

ODFL down 3.8% (vs. April down 6.1%), XPO up 0.5% (vs.