UK Economic Comment "BoE preview: Rates on hold amid more votes for a hike"

Research evidence excerpt

UK Economic Comment "BoE preview: Rates on hold amid more votes for a hike"

Global Research

8 June 2026ab

UK Economic Comment Economics

United KingdomBoE preview: Rates on hold amid more votes for

a hike Anna Titareva

Economist

anna.titareva@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 5083

BoE to keep rates unchanged; number of dissenters likely to rise to two Benjamin Jarrett

At its upcoming meeting on 18 June, we expect the MPC to keep the Bank Rate Strategist

unchanged at 3.75%, broadly in line with market expectations (pricing +2bp for June). benjamin.jarrett@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 5430

Regarding the vote split, we think Megan Greene is likely to join Huw Pill - who already

voted for a hike in April - in supporting a 25bp increase. In a recent speech, Greene Reinhard Cluse

argued that “the case for hiking rates grows as the conflict wears on” and that she Economist

believes a tightening in monetary policy over the coming weeks or months may be reinhard.cluse@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 6722

necessary. In contrast, we expect the rest of the Committee to favour holding rates

steady, taking some comfort from the latest inflation and labour market data, which Felix Huefner

came in slightly below the BoE’s expectations, some easing in households’ inflation Economist

expectations, as indicated by the Citi/YouGov survey, and broadly stable wage growth felix.huefner@ubs.com

+49-69-1369 8280

expectations, according to the latest DMP survey. We acknowledge that the MPC still

has to receive several important data releases ahead of the meeting, including the Franziska Fischer

Inflation Attitudes Survey (12 June), May CPI (17 June) and the June labour market Economist

report (18 June). However, we think even weaker-than-expected data are unlikely to franziska.fischer@ubs.com

+41-44-239 2054