voestalpine "Safeguards measures priced in, down to Neutral" (Neutral) Jones

Research evidence excerpt

voestalpine "Safeguards measures priced in, down to Neutral" (Neutral) Jones

ieve this is largely

priced in at current levels. With a market-leading position in rail, we continue to expect VOE to deliver

a 6% 2025-2030E revenue CAGR in its Railway Systems business. However, with BY2026/27E EV/

EBITDA of 6x, we think this is already reflected in the shares.

EVIDENCE We track changes in EU trade policy for their impact on domestic pricing and import parity. We also

model the impact of higher EU production on CO2 costs to assess the viability of raising output to

meet the shortfall in imports.

WHAT´S PRICED IN? Based on our 5.0x EV/EBITDA multiple (close to the 5y average), VOE prices in EBITDA ~€2.0bn pa by

2027/28E, broadly in-line with our forest of €2.1bn, which suggests the shares are fairly valued at

current levels.

Upside/Downside

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FY27/28E Sales FY27/28E Non-steel

Value drivers EV/EBITDA multiple

volume, m EBITDA/t EBITDA FY27/28E €m

€60.0 upside 7.6 337 335 4.3x

€50.0 base 6.7 303 110 5.0x

€35.0 6.4 157 108 7.3x

Source: UBS estimates

Company Description Voestalpine is Austria's largest steel producer, with four main divisions. The Steel Division produces

flat carbon steel (4.9mt of shipments in 2025/26). Metal Engineering produces long steel products

(1.3mt in 2025/26) including rails, wire rods and seamless tubes, as well as turnout systems and

welded consumables. The High Performance Metals division (0.3mt in 2025/26) produces specialty

high alloy steel, including tool steel for sectors such as aerospace and the oil & gas industry. The Metal

Forming division produces precision strip products, tubes & sections, automotive body parts and

warehouse racks.