Global Tobacco "Germany Nielsen to April 2026" Baig

Research evidence excerpt

Global Tobacco "Germany Nielsen to April 2026" Baig

Global Research

8 June 2026ab

Global Tobacco Equities

Europe including UKGermany Nielsen to April 2026

Tobacco

Faham Baig

German volumes relatively soft, driven by private label deceleration Analyst

Germany has been a relatively attractive market for the tobacco industry, with faham.baig@ubs.com

underlying volumes declining low-single digits, relatively affordable pack prices at c€6, +44-20-7568 3966

real price elasticity of demand at c0.2 and a historically benign tax environment. We Emily Teo

estimate Germany accounts for c20% of Imperial's EBIT, c10% of PMI, and c5% of BAT/ Associate Analyst

JT. However, the tobacco industry has been losing share to lower-priced private label/ emily-s.teo@ubs.com

smaller manufacturers that has reached a volume share of c38% (vs c31% in 2020). The +44-20-7567 1002

latest NielsenIQ data highlights German volumes declined -5.0% in April (vs -3.4%/-

7.2% prev two months), driven by private label volumes down -9.4% (-8.1%/-9.2%),

which could be due to supply constraints, in our view. We estimate manufacturers'

pricing is currently running c+3%. Slight negative for Imperial/BAT/PMI with their

volumes down mid- to high single digits in the past 3 months.

Separately, media commentary suggests that "According to plans by the Federal

Ministry of Finance, the tax rate levied on each cigarette will increase from the current

12.28 cents to 12.90 cents on September 1st, and then to 13.74 cents on January 1st of

next year. The percentage tax rate per pack will be raised from the current 19.84 percent

to 21.66 percent." Whilst not finalised/approved, we calculate this could imply retail

price of cigarettes rising by over +12% by Jan 2027, to offset a -5-6% volumes decline