Saudi Basic Industries Co "SABIC agri analyst call feedback" (Neutral)

Research evidence excerpt

Saudi Basic Industries Co "SABIC agri analyst call feedback" (Neutral)

EPS (UBS, diluted) (SAR)

expected in the coming months. In parallel, Plant 6 (also in Jubail) will focus on blue

UBS Cons.

ammonia production (c.1.2mtpa), targeting energy transition markets, although 12/26E 1.10 1.65

timelines remain to be clarified. Management indicated that both ammonia and urea 12/27E 2.31 2.71

expansion projects are at advanced stages of development, supporting medium-term 12/28E 2.51 3.61

capacity growth and positioning the company to capture both traditional fertiliser

demand and emerging low-carbon opportunities. Alexander Estefanous, CFA

Analyst

alex.estefanous@ubs.com

Market dynamics, earnings drivers and growth outlook

+44-20-7567 0508

On market dynamics, management remains constructive on fertiliser demand, although

Jon Peacerecent disruptions have tightened global supply chains and increased logistics-driven

cost pressures, supporting pricing. This has been reflected in Q1 performance, where jon.peace@ubs.com

operating income increased despite lower revenues, driven by cost optimisation and +44-20-7567 0638

higher realised prices (ASP), alongside prior-year one-offs related to workforce expenses.

Associates and joint ventures, which contribute c.5-7% of earnings, have been

negatively impacted by broader market conditions, though SABIC continues to actively

manage these partnerships. Looking ahead, the company is particularly positive on the

outlook for blue ammonia, expecting demand growth and increasing market

penetration over time, supported by its expanding project pipeline and exposure to the

energy transition theme.

Highlights (SRb) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 142 118 117 109 114 115 121 128

EBIT (UBS) 4 9 4 6 10 11 12 14