Brazilian Banks "Novo Desenrola: How big could it be? A look back at fir..."

Research evidence excerpt

Brazilian Banks "Novo Desenrola: How big could it be? A look back at fir..."

Global Research

8 June 2026ab

Brazilian Banks Equities

Latin AmericaNovo Desenrola: How big could it be? A look

back at first Desenrola (2023) Banks

Thiago Batista, CFA

Analyst

thiago.batista@ubs.com

Nubank stands as the most active in previous refinance program (Desenrola- +55-11-3513 6518

2023)

Olavo Arthuzo

Desenrola Brasil was launched in 2023, and Nubank emerged as the most relevant Analyst

player, with a market share of 29%, followed by Banco Pan (at 26%) and Banco Inter olavo.arthuzo@ubs.com

(at 12%). Incumbent banks were less affected by the program, with the five largest +55-11-2767 6306

incumbents jointly totalling 27% in share (smaller than Nu). From an asset quality Beatriz Shinye

perspective, system-wide NPLs of loans refinanced guaranteed by Associate Analyst

FGO (collateralized fund) remain low, at 3.6%, with no material differences beatriz.shinye@ubs.com

between incumbents and newcomers, both operating in the low single digits. Caixa +55-11-2767 6569

stands out as an outlier, with an NPL of 22%. Importantly, program delinquency has

improved over time, with system NPLs declining from 7.5% in Dec-24 to 3.6% by May-

26.

Novo Desenrola (2026): potential of R$88bn in loans renegotiation

Novo Desenrola (2026) was launched in May 2026, expands Brazil’s debt

renegotiation program for individuals earning up to five minimum wages (MW). We

estimate a potential renegotiation volume of around R$88bn, supported by funding

channelled to the FGO and FGTS. According to the initial information from the

federal government, R$ 20 bn of loans were already renegotiated, with an average

discount of 85%, which indicates that those loans were overdue by about 1 year

(probably already written-off).