CVS Health Corp "Notes From Recent Management Meetings" (Buy) Caliendo

Research evidence excerpt

CVS Health Corp "Notes From Recent Management Meetings" (Buy) Caliendo

n. 12/26E

UBS Cons.

- Management said that the company remains highly focused on Stars and continues to Q1E 2.57 2.57

invest in systems and programs and processes to ensure the company keeps its industry- Q2E 1.48 1.83

leading position here. They also said they are acting as if the cut points will continue to Q3E 1.89 1.71

get more challenging, but admitted some of the changes to the calculations around Q4E 1.44 1.32

Capstone and pharmacy may benefit them. 12/26E 7.38 7.43

12/27E 8.33 8.38

12/28E 9.52 9.58

- Confidence in Guaranteed Rebates remains and is perhaps higher now with another

two months of experience. Management also specifically said that nothing happening Kevin Caliendo

with GLP-1s (Rx growth, lower pricing, greater move to cash pay, etc.) is unexpected and Analyst

kevin.caliendo@ubs.com

was contemplated in the original HSS guide. The recent deals with LLY to expand access

+1-212-713 3630

to weight-loss drugs in the US again are not expected to impact financial performance

and were contemplated. Andrea Alfonso

Analyst

andrea.alfonso@ubs.com

- The HSS guide assumes that the ~$500M in guaranteed rebate headwind expected in +1-212-713 1342

2026 is a new baseline and that no incremental headwind is contemplated beyond that.

Jayna Francis

Management also suggested that Caremark operating margins should return to ~4% as

Associate Analyst

the GR headwinds abate. jayna.francis@ubs.com

+1-212-713 4939

- Part D outperformed in 1Q and, again, tone here seemingly has improved, but

management did not want to call for upside to guidance from Part D yet, suggesting all

Highlights (US$m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E