US and Canada Hardline, Broadline, Food Retail & Food Distribution "What..."

Research evidence excerpt

US and Canada Hardline, Broadline, Food Retail & Food Distribution "What..."

In the absence of evidence to disprove the bear case on the consumer, the burden

of proof is weighing on the bulls. Said another way, until there is evidence that says

AI won’t be disruptive to the labor market, the overarching view on this group of

stocks (and perhaps the consumer sector more broadly) may remain cautious. As a

result, broader capital flows are not moving into this sector. They are being

deployed into areas of the market that will be beneficiaries from some of the

structural changes and larger themes. Given these dynamics, the market is likely to

remain sensitive and reactionary to each shorter data point. Any short-term

cautionary indication about the state of demand and the rate of change is going to

get outsized weight, in the view of some in the market.

What could change the negative sentiment?

The critical question that is being debated is what could change this cautious

underlying stance on this group. It's widely believed that a broad-based and

meaningful decline in interest rates would go a long way towards helping

sentiment. It could support more interest in the space, especially the stocks of

those companies that are pro-cyclical, have higher beta, operate further out on the

risk curve, or have been left behind because of a smaller market cap or lower

trading liquidity.

Notably, the collective market cap of the consumer discretionary sector (excluding

Amazon and Tesla) now accounts for 4% of the S&P 500. To put that in

perspective, this same metric was 12% of the S&P 500 in 2000.

At this point, there's been less focus by the market on this sector of the benefit

from the development and deployment of technology. The retail sector accounts