US Insurance "UBS HOLT Framework - What Level of Long-Term Growth Is Pri..."

Research evidence excerpt

US Insurance "UBS HOLT Framework - What Level of Long-Term Growth Is Pri..."

Global Research

8 June 2026ab

US Insurance Equities

AmericasUBS HOLT Framework - What Level of Long-Term

Growth Is Priced In for Insurance Brokers? Insurance

Brian Meredith

Analyst

brian.meredith@ubs.com

Are the Insurance Brokers pricing in any future revenue growth at this point? +1-212-713 2492

We use the UBS HOLT framework to assess what the market is pricing in for the longer- Maxwell Bartuch

term given market concerns about AI disrupting the insurance brokerage industry. The HOLT Sector Specialist

UBS HOLT methodology evaluates company value by focusing on long-term cash- maxwell.bartuch@ubs.com

generating ability rather than traditional accounting metrics. This analysis highlights +1-312-525 5721

negative to very low growth expectations for the entire Insurance Brokers' group when Leandro Leite

evaluating what's priced into the longer-term growth outlook three years from now, as Associate Analyst

disintermediation from AI potentially impacts growth rates. We see the greatest leandro.leite@ubs.com

asymmetry for RYAN, where the market is effectively pricing no long-term growth +1-212-882 5559

despite the company's exposure to specialty, E&S lines and wholesale, which we view as Justin Tucker

structurally more complex and durable. MRSH is our top pick among the Insurance Associate Analyst

Brokers for 2026, but longer-term, we see meaningful upside for the entire insurance justin.tucker@ubs.com

brokerage group. +1-212-713 2325

HOLT estimates Insurance Brokers pricing in overly punitive long-term revenue

growth

We believe the market is overly extrapolating recent pricing softness and competitive

pressures into terminal assumptions, which appear too punitive given limited evidence