Healthcare Services "Weekly Check-Up: Managed Care and Retail Pharmacy O..."

Research evidence excerpt

Healthcare Services "Weekly Check-Up: Managed Care and Retail Pharmacy O..."

onference. As is typical for HCA, the company's

commentary was consistent with what it said during its most recent earnings call. Some

investors we've spoken to had expressed the hope that HCA could take a more positive

posture given the recent approval of the 2025 Florida supplemental payment program

(our prior note), which we estimate should add $280 mln or so to HCA EBITDA and is

expected to be recorded in 2Q26. Some investors also hoped that HCA would be more

willing to express that ACA marketplace results are trending more favorably than

originally guided to (HCA saw a ~$150 mln headwind in 1Q vs. $600-$900 mln

guidance for the year). In our experience with the company, HCA has kept its messaging

consistent during the quarter regardless of positive or negative developments, so we do

not believe investors should read too much into the current messaging either way.

Having said that, our own monthly survey results combined with third party data

suggests that overall volumes continue to be relatively flattish Y/Y in the second quarter,

and have not shown the continued strength that was seen in March (after sluggish a

sluggish January and February). For those looking at Y/Y calendar variations, we note

that the month that has the most favorable calendar favorability in 2Q is likley to be

June. Regarding the ACA marketplace trends, we expect the hospital operators to

maintain a cautious posture until later in the year given the significant uncertainty

around how potential disenrollment is likely to play out over the course of the year. (Link

to Note)

BTSG: Announces Secondary Offering of 15 mln Shares; BTSG to Repurchase

Portion of Shares Offered (June 3, 2026)