TotalEnergies (AO) | Hold | Feedback from the CFO Tour

Research evidence excerpt

TotalEnergies (AO) | Hold | Feedback from the CFO Tour

mmer refill season. European storage entered the injection season at low levels, while Asia

and Europe are likely to compete for cargoes through the summer. Management does not think current LNG prices fully reflect the

tightness, especially given Qatar restart uncertainty and the time lag before cargoes reach end-markets.

Hormuz exposure is significant in volume terms but less material in cash-flow terms.

TotalEnergies has around 15% of its Oil & Gas production affected by the regional disruption, mainly Qatar, Iraq and UAE offshore,

equivalent to c.360kboe/d currently shut in since April. There has been no reported asset damage, so the restart should be relatively

quick once conditions allow. However, these Middle East barrels are less cash-accretive than the group average because of taxation and

fiscal terms. Management indicated the cash-flow hit is around 7–8% (or c. USD2 bn annualised at Brent USD60/bbl) and that an increase

in Brent of USD8/bbl offsets the lost volumes.

Capital allocation remains unchanged: dividend first, disciplined capex, balance-sheet strength, then buybacks.

Buybacks remain tied to cash flow and deleveraging, with management still effectively committed to returning around 40% of

cash flow to shareholders while aiming for gearing around 10% by year-end (was just above 15% at the end of Q1).

Management reiterated the 2026 net investment guidance of c.USD15bn and does not intend to relax project hurdles because of a

temporarily stronger oil price. Only around USD100m of incremental short-cycle investment has been identified so far.

CFO reiterated that projects must be resilient at low prices, with a planning deck around USD50/bbl and technical costs below

USD20/bbl.