FX Quant Insight: Don’t fight the USD bulls

Research evidence excerpt

FX Quant Insight: Don’t fight the USD bulls

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FX Quant Insight

Don’t fight the USD bulls

Key takeaways 08 June 2026

G10 FX Strategy• USD breaks higher on strong NFP; quant signals favor chasing the move

Global

• Flow and skew back USD calls, USD uptrend vs most of G10, US data remain hawkish

• We are bullish USD vs CHF on technicals, momentum, carry, gold, and the SNB

FX Signal of the Week: Bullish USDCHF

Exhibit 1: Quant signals have turned meaningfully bullish USD

Top signals from quant models Marcus Boman

FX Strategist

Section Insight Rationale MLI (UK)

Option Flow Bullish USD Option flow and skew supports USD higher +44 20 7996 3322

Technical Matrix Bullish USD USD is in an uptrend vs all its G10 peers except AUD and NOK marcus.boman@bofa.com

CARS Equity factor Bullish NOK and GBP, bearish JPY on equity factor. Bruno Braizinha, CFA

Time Zone USDCHF demand US and European demand for USDCHF increased last week. Rates Strategist

BofAS

EM FX Bearish KRW Bearish continuation signal triggered by event analysis framework. +1 646 743 7012

Source: BofA Global Research bruno.braizinha@bofa.com

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Paul Ciana, CMT

USD breaking higher TechnicalBofAS Strategist

+1 646 743 7014

After weeks of range‑bound trading, the USD has broken higher following last Friday’s paul.ciana@bofa.com

strong NFP print. Our quant signals favor chasing the move. Option flow and skew have Jonathan Hartley, CMT

shifted towards USD calls (Exhibit 2), and bullish USD signals have been triggered Technical Strategist

against CHF and NZD by our event analysis framework (Exhibit 4). The USD is now also +1 646 855 1236

in an uptrend against all its G10 peers except NOK and AUD (Exhibit 8), which we would jonathan.a.hartley@bofa.com