Moderna: Takeaways from our group lunch with management

Research evidence excerpt

Moderna: Takeaways from our group lunch with management

Cost control is current rate limiter for pipeline expansion

Management framed the business today around three commercial modalities, vaccines,

oncology, and rare disease, with improving P&L dynamics supported by guided 2026

revenue growth, cost reductions already ahead of target, and R&D expected to decline as

late-stage studies wrap. We view the path to breakeven as better supported than it was

six months ago, but still dependent on respiratory growth, intismeran execution, and

continued spending discipline, consistent with our prior view that the stock debate

remains broader than oncology (see our 1Q26 estimate reset and thesis update).

Beyond melanoma, lung and RCC are the key for expansion

The most important pipeline broadening beyond melanoma remains lung and RCC, with

management highlighting stage I NSCLC as particularly attractive given earlier disease, a

more intact immune system, and potential for intismeran monotherapy as well as

combination use. We see the new stage I NSCLC study as a meaningful signal of

Moderna and Merck’s confidence, but still believe melanoma needs to validate first

before investors attribute value to broader tumor expansion. RCC could be the next up

(later in 2026 or early 2027), with management reiterating that phase 2 data could

potentially be registrational depending on results, although we would expect debate

around endpoint strength, durability, and regulatory path. Positive melanoma data would

likely increase read-through to IO-sensitive tumors, but less IO-sensitive tumors and

competitive combination backbones, including PD-1/VEGF approaches, could set a higher

bar for intismeran to compete.

If intismeran is positive, focus will shift to manufacturing