H. Lundbeck A/S: Bocunebart (PACAP) data mixed at AHS; Increases debate on market opp

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H. Lundbeck A/S: Bocunebart (PACAP) data mixed at AHS; Increases debate on market opp

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H. Lundbeck A/S

Bocunebart (PACAP) data mixed at AHS;

Increases debate on market opp

Maintain Rating: UNDERPERFORM | PO: 34.00 DKK | Price: 44.80 DKK

PACAP AHS data mixed; increases debate on market opp 08 June 2026

PIIb data for HLUN’s bocunebart (PACAP) in migraine prevention presented at AHS y’day Equity

was mixed in our view, with c1.4 monthly migraine day (MMD) reduction vs placebo

Alexander Moore >>

below broad expectations for c2-day reduction, based on CGRP data and prior PIIa. That Research Analyst

said, post-hoc of pooled PII data was better in chronic migraine subgroup, which while MLI (UK) alexander.moore2@bofa.com

only c1/3rd of total addressable migraine opp, HLUN notes chronic patients reflect c80%

Charlie Haywood >>

of its target harder-to-treat population for PACAP. We think data increases debate for Research Analyst

bocunebart’s market opp, given it raises some uncertainty on whether ≥2.0 MMD redn MLIcharlie.haywood@bofa.com(UK)

can be achieved in PIII, framed as bar for uptake post-CGRP by KOLs, with HLUN also

Sachin Jain, CFA >>

vocal on targeting a potentially narrower chronic popln going forward. Pending PIII start/ Research Analyst

design, we assume use as a mixed 3-4L switch based on debates below and prior KOL MLIs.jain@bofa.com(UK)

feedback (overleaf), supporting our DKK3bn peak sales (DKK900m risk-adj). Yet, while Keilah Carbonel-Deere >>

our PACAP (and other pipeline) forecasts aid recovery in topline growth 29E+, they still Research Analyst

fail to fully offset LOEs for key products 26-29E, thus we maintain U/P – thesis overleaf. MLIkeilah.carbonel-deere@bofa.com(UK)

Efficacy was below c2 MMD bar, chronic subgroup better