Core & Main: F1Q26 Recap: Guidance Reiterated, but Is It Conservative?

Research evidence excerpt

Core & Main: F1Q26 Recap: Guidance Reiterated, but Is It Conservative?

Deutsche Bank

Research

Rating Company Date

Buy Core & Main 10 June 2026

North America Reuters Bloomberg Rating Buy

United States CNM.N CNM US Price target (USD) 62.00 Price at 9 Jun 26 52.65

52-week range 66.98 – 44.29

Industrials

US Building Products Valuation & Risks

F1Q26 Recap: Guidance Reiterated, but Is It

Conservative? CollinResearchVerronAnalyst

+1-212-250-5181

1Q EBITDA beat expectations and management reiterated its full-year EBITDA

guidance of $950 million to $980 million. The stock underperformed the market

today (-6.1%; XHB: -3.3%), which we believe could reflect more measured

commentary around the benefits of PVC pricing after the stock outperformed over

the past several weeks (+11% from May 15 to June 5; XHB: +7.5%). Despite the

stock performance, we are tweaking our FY26 EBITDA estimate higher (from $970

million to $975 million) and close to the top end of the EBITDA guide. Our price

target is unchanged, and we reiterate our Buy rating.

Volume. Sales were flat YoY at $1.9bn, with organic volumes down ~1% and M&A

adding ~1pt. FY26 guidance assumes flat end markets, ~1pt of M&A, and a

couple points of above-market organic volume growth from share gains.

Management sees the volume setup improving as comps ease and backlog/order

books release, with slight growth in F2Q and more meaningful low- to mid-single-

digit growth in F3Q/F4Q. Management characterized data centers as a mid-

single-digit sales category, with activity picking up across Midwest/Northern

markets, and meters and treatment plants remain multi-year growth drivers.

Price. FY26 guidance still assumes flat pricing overall, with no change to the

original guide despite a potentially better PVC setup. CNM has seen supplier