AV Updates: Waymo Model Refresh, Uber Scaling Int'l Efforts

Research evidence excerpt

AV Updates: Waymo Model Refresh, Uber Scaling Int'l Efforts

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC INDUSTRY UPDATE

June 8, 2026

■Internet: Internet & New Media AV Updates: Waymo Model Refresh, Uber

■Internet: E-Commerce

Scaling Int'l Efforts

John Blackledge THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

646 562 1359

We updated our Waymo model to reflect our latest Uber & Lyft estimates. We estimate that

john.blackledge@tdsecurities.com

~6K Waymo vehicles will offer paid rides by the end of '26, driving Gross Bookings of $463MM

William Kerr (0.7% of US rideshare). Meanwhile, Uber announced AV partnerships in Madrid & Munich, the

646 562 1349 first with existing partners WeRide and AVOMO and the latter with NVIDIA & Autobrains.

bill.kerr@tdsecurities.com

James Kopelman We updated our Waymo model to reflect our latest Uber & Lyft estimates; We continue to

646 562 1320 expect Waymo will reach ~6K vehicles offering paid rides by the end of '26, supporting 28MM

james.kopelman@tdsecurities.com paid rides over the course of the year. We estimate that Waymo will generate US rideshare

Logan Whalley, CFA Gross Bookings (GBs) of $458MM in '26, up from an estimated $230MM in '25 and rising to

646 562 1392 $3.7BN in '30. We estimate Waymo's attributable share of US rideshare GBs rises from 0.4% in

logan.whalley@tdsecurities.com '25 to 0.7% in '26 and 3.6% in '30. See detailed Waymo model below.

Our '26 estimates assume paid ride availability in current markets Atlanta, Austin, Dallas,

Houston, LA, Miami, Nashville, San Antonio, SF, Phoenix, and Orlando, and new markets

Washington D.C., Detroit, Nashville, San Diego, Las Vegas, London, and Denver. There could

be other new markets launched in '26 in the US and Int'l.

Waymo has 577 autonomous vehicles registered in Texas per a 3/28 data release from the