4Q26 Preview: Positioning Sets Up Shares For Slight Positive Reaction

Research evidence excerpt

4Q26 Preview: Positioning Sets Up Shares For Slight Positive Reaction

Human Capital Management

Paychex

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC EARNINGS UPDATE

June 8, 2026

Price: $100.53 (06/5/2026) 4Q26 Preview: Positioning Sets Up Shares For

Price Target: $98.00 (Prior $94.00) Slight Positive Reaction

HOLD (2)

ESG SCORE: 63/100

Jared Levine, CFA THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

646 562 1431

We anticipate PAYX to report 4Q results slightly above consensus & provide FY27 guidance

jared.levine@tdsecurities.com

that is relatively in line with consensus with a revenue midpoint of either 5.25% or 5.5%. We

Bryan C. Bergin, CFA view this outcome as most likely to yield a LSD positive relief reaction due to positioning that

646 562 1369 skews negative.

bryan.bergin@tdsecurities.com

Key Data The Setup: Neutral to Positive view into print.

Symbol NASDAQ: PAYX

We anticipate PAYX to report 4Q results slightly above consensus and provide initial FY27

Beta: 0.83

guidance that is relatively in line with consensus. We view this outcome as most likely to yield

52-Week Range: $159.78-$85.57

a LSD positive relief reaction with print akin to the 3Q print as positioning remains skewed

Market Cap: $36.0B

negative with short interest at 6.4% (-10 bps L3M close to matching 10-year record of 6.5%)

Net Debt (MM): $3,183.0 and days to cover at 6.4 days (+0.7 days L3M). A healthy tone on the operating backdrop,

Cash/Share: $5.71 revenue synergies, bookings, and efficiency efforts are also supportive to sentiment.

Dil. Shares Out (MM): 359.5

Enterprise Value Greater than a LSD positive reaction on the print would likely require 4Q organic ex float

$39,323.5

(MM): growth of mid 6% rather than ~low 6% as this performance would likely result in an upward

BV/Share: $11.20 revision to buy-side estimates.