NEXI (=) : Potential impact from potential Italian banking consolidation

Research evidence excerpt

NEXI (=) : Potential impact from potential Italian banking consolidation

EQUITIES

PAYMENT SERVICES

NEXI NEUTRALPRICE* EUR3.37  TARGET PRICE EUR4.00 (UPSIDE 19%)

FLASH NOTE

Potential impact from potential Italian banking consolidation

8 JUNE 2026 Securities Research Report Production time: 08:45* (London time)

Research Analyst & Publishing Entities

Alexandre Faure BNP Paribas SA +33 1 42 99 52 38 alexandre.x.faure@bnpparibas.com

What happened?

Intesa announced this morning a bid for Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS), following a EUR50bn proposal by

Banco BPM over the weekend.

BNPP View:

We recall that Nexi acquired BMPS’s merchant book in 2017 for EUR520m. At the time, BMPS disclosed that 60% of

this book’s volume was with large retail, and 40% with small businesses.

The BMPS merchant book generated cEUR87m in revenue in 2016, and cEUR50m in EBITDA. Assuming that that

book grew 6% CAGR over the last 10Y and maintain its EBITDA margin, we estimate that the BMPS merchant book

will account for c4% of Nexi group net revenue and 4-5% of Nexi group EBITDA in 2026.

We also recall that Nexi has a close relationship with Intesa (Nexi owns the Intesa merchant book and has a distribution

agreement in place until 2044) whilst Banco BPM decided to move away from Nexi a few years ago. Nexi owns the

BMPS merchant book and those revenues and profits are therefore secure over the shorter term we believe, regardless

of banking consolidation. That merchant book, however, comes with a distribution agreement that comes up for renewal

in July 2027.

Should Banco BPM be successful in its takeover of BMPS, we believe Banco would not renew that distribution

agreement, leading to some mid/long-term pressure for Nexi (we believe 10-15% of small business churns every year