PHARMACEUTICALS : ADA weekend takeaways - EU Pharma read across

Research evidence excerpt

PHARMACEUTICALS : ADA weekend takeaways - EU Pharma read across

Roche/Zealand – little ADA cheer in our view

While we acknowledge market expectations for Roche’s obesity portfolio are modest, we

come away from ADA incrementally negative. With LLY set to report Ph II combination

data for Zepbound (GLP-1/GIP) and eloralintide (amylin) in H2 we see market perception

further souring towards petrelintide. Roche and partner Zealand will have their equivalent

CT-388/petre combo data next year (2H27e). We note Roche’s CT-896 (GLP-1/GIP)

efforts in Type 1 diabetes have been discontinued (minor negative) and we continue to

view CT-966 (oral GLP-1) as uncompetitive based on available clinical data and the

significant competitive landscape. We note positive commentary regarding Roche’s

FGF21 analogue pegozafermin though there was no new data shared at ADA.

Survo obesity/MASH data falls flat at ADA

The survo plenary obesity and MASH data was essentially a damp squib with a muted

audience response compounded by the presenters being at pains to highlight the

“rigidity” of the trial design with respect to forced dose titration schedules regardless of

side effects, and fact only 60% of patients enrolled being female (lose more weight than

males in obesity studies and usually consist >70% in obesity trials). There was also a

large placebo effect, reflecting 16% of placebo patients using other prohibited weight loss

medications during the study. The headline data at Week 76 was lower weight loss

versus than that seen Wegovy and Zepbound studies (-12-16% headline vs -3-5% for

placebo) and an eye catching 24% discontinuation rate versus 5% for placebo and

comparable Wegovy studies. GI side effects were way higher than the 15-20% typically