Chewy Inc: A Healthy Cut & Compelling Valuation, Time Needed to Re-Rate; Remain OW

Research evidence excerpt

Chewy Inc: A Healthy Cut & Compelling Valuation, Time Needed to Re-Rate; Remain OW

plied volatility data from the options market as of 10 Contrarian: Positive

Jun 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either Disruption: Positive

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

BULL CASE $63.00 BASE CASE $42.00 BEAR CASE $15.00

~20x Bull Case 2027E EBITDA ~15x Base Case 2027E EBITDA ~6x Bear Case 2027E EBITDA

Investor's Best Friend. Chewy grows revenue A Good Companion. Chewy grows revenue Problematic Pet. Chewy grows revenue at a

at a 10% FY25-FY30 CAGR, sees stronger at a 9% FY25-FY30 CAGR, driven by ~4% FY25-FY30 CAGR, sees deceleration in

than expected net adds coupled with growth continued sustained growth in net sales per both net customer adds and NSPAC as

in NSPAC on an improved macro & success active customer along with its strong competitive pressures intensify. Adj. EBITDA

of new initiatives. The company accelerates retention and cohort economics. Adj. margins expand slower than expected, ~6%

traction in new verticals including scaling its EBITDA margin ramps to ~8% in FY27, in FY27, due to lower operational efficiencies

clinic base and ramping Chewy+. Greater driven by scale, a mix shift to higher margin and pricing pressure. Long-term EBITDA

scale enables faster SG&A leverage and categories such as private label goods and margins reach just ~6%.

better GM with long term EBITDA margins pharmacy, ramping promoted listings, and

of ~14%. automating fulfillment centers. Long term

EBITDA margins reach ~11%.

Morgan Stanley Research 3