Central Japan Railway: Jun 2026 (Interim) Tokaido Shinkansen Passenger Volume: Better Than It Looks; Monitoring Future Data Closely

Research evidence excerpt

Central Japan Railway: Jun 2026 (Interim) Tokaido Shinkansen Passenger Volume: Better Than It Looks; Monitoring Future Data Closely

Update

June 10, 2026 01:12 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MCentral Japan Railway (9022) | Japan Takuya Osaka

Equity Analyst

Jun 2026 (Interim) Tokaido Takuya.Osaka@morganstanleymufg.comShan Jiang +81 3 6836-5438

Research Associate

Shan.Jiang@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5430

Shinkansen Passenger Volume:

Better Than It Looks; Monitoring

Future Data Closely

Central Japan Railway (9022.T, 9022 JT)

Railways | Japan

Key Takeaways Stock Rating Underweight

Industry View In-Line

Tokaido shinkansen sectional transport volume data (~Jun 9) released by JR Price target ¥3,350

Shr price, close (Jun 10, 2026) ¥3,507

Central post-close on Jun 10 indicate Tokyo origin -8% YoY (Osaka origin -12%). Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn) ¥3,349.8

Avg daily trading value (bn) ¥10.5

Data covers only 9 days, but first impression is negative. Due to the special

factors mentioned below, we think the result may not be as bad as it looks. We

intend to keep a close eye on data.

We think the decline was partially due to typhoon impact (fewer outings) and

calendar impacts (3 weekend days in 2025 vs. 2 in 2026).

Meanwhile, cross-sectional transport volume on the Osaka corridor declined 12%,

suggesting that the boost from the Osaka Expo is now clearly fading.

We forecast Tokaido shinkansen sectional transport volume at -1% YoY for F3/27

1Q. Meanwhile, a simple calculation suggests that cumulative volume for 1Q has

remained broadly flat YoY.

Exhibit 1: YoY growth in Tokaido shinkansen sectional transport volume (%)

Osaka expo

25 Tokyo

the three-day gate 20

weekend effect

15 the three-day

10 weekend effect

GW

-5

-10

-15