US Credit Strategy: Investment Grade Corporate Credit Dashboard – Testing the Bull Case

Research evidence excerpt

US Credit Strategy: Investment Grade Corporate Credit Dashboard – Testing the Bull Case

June 10, 2026 06:08 PM GMT

M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H

North AmericaInvestment Grade Corporate Credit Dashboard:

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Testing the Bull Case Vishwas Patkar

• Valuations: IG spreads are near the tights, below 75bps since mid-May, supported by all-in IG Strategist Vishwas.Patkar@morganstanley.com

attractive yields above 5% We think the bull case of 70bp should hold up as a floor, unless +1 212.761.8041

issuance starts to underwhelm. We see modest widening through 1H27 as rates go lower and

supply accelerates further, anchored by continued growth in capex and M&A into 2027. ChristinaStrategist Sigler

Christina.Sigler@morganstanley.com

• AI Debt Financing Tracker: April ran hot but May saw a slowdown in issuance across products to +1 212.761.4116

finance the AI buildout. We forecast $575bn of AI-Related supply globally in 2026, $400bn of which

will come from US IG. For more information across products and currencies, see our second MorganLimited+Stanley India Company Private

edition of the tracker. Yagyesh Modi

Strategist

• Supply: IG surpassed $1tr in YTD issuance late in May, the fastest pace since 2020. May issuance Yagyesh.Modi@morganstanley.com

was only +1% y/y as the first month this year without a hyperscaler deal. The first week of June +91 22 6293-5945

was busier than dealer estimates expected, with $53bn pricing last week. YTD issuance stands Mayank Verma

currently at $1,100bn, +26% y/y. Strategist

Mayank.Verma@morganstanley.com

• Ratings Migrations: May had more upgrades ($71bn) than downgrades ($33bn) from multiple +91 22 6995-3508

names. The YTD upgrade/downgrade skew is now 1.7x. Two more fallen angels have brought the