REITs / CRE / CMBS: The State of CRE: Recovery Continues Despite Rate Volatility

Research evidence excerpt

REITs / CRE / CMBS: The State of CRE: Recovery Continues Despite Rate Volatility

Foundation

June 10, 2026 01:38 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMREITs / CRE / CMBS | North America Ronald Kamdem, CFA

Equity Analyst

The State of CRE: Recovery Ronald.Kamdem@morganstanley.comJames Egan +1 212 296-8319

Strategist

James.F.Egan@MorganStanley.com +1 212 761-4715

Continues Despite Rate Jenny Li

Research Associate

Jenny.Li1@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2228

Volatility Catherine Liu

Catherine.Liu2@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0222

In ~100 key charts, we highlight the latest CRE and CMBS data

points updated over the past month. The CRE recovery

continues, with maturities being extended, lending and

originations improving, transaction activity rebounding, and

prices stabilizing despite rate volatility. Real Estate Investment Trusts

North America

Industry View In-Line

Key Takeaways

MBA’s 2026 maturities forecast rose +32% to $874bn, suggesting some 24'/25' Exhibit 1 : $874bn of CRE Mortgage Debt

maturities were extended/modified into 2026, continuing a trend seen in prior Maturing in ’26, Up +32% from Prior MBA

years Forecast, with Banks Holding ~$396bn / 45%

1000 Maturities ($bn)

Loan volumes and LTVs increased across lender types; National banks gained the

most CRE lending share in 2025, rising from 7% in ’24 to 12% in ’25.

Commercial/multifamily originations rose +53% YoY in 1Q26, while volumes 400

declined -30% QoQ on typical first-quarter seasonality. 200

The Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey suggests CRE standards broadly unchanged; 0

demand mixed, with weaker CLD demand offset by stable NFNR and multifamily CMBS,Fannie,CDO,Freddie,or otherFHA, ABSand Ginnie Mae LifeBanksInsurance Companies

demand. Credit Companies, Warehouses, Other

Source: MBA, Morgan Stanley Research