Tami’s Trash Talk Sequential Acceleration in Both CPI and OCC Price

Research evidence excerpt

Tami’s Trash Talk Sequential Acceleration in Both CPI and OCC Price

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

10 June 2026

Tami’s Trash Talk

Sequential Acceleration in Both CPI and OCC Price

Machinery, Engineering &

Construction

Tami Zakaria, CFA AC

(1-212) 622-9888

tami.zakaria@jpmchase.com

This monthly publication tracks key CPI metrics and commodity prices related to Alec R McGuire

our waste services coverage, including domestic and export OCC prices (national (1-212) 622-2432

alec.mcguire@jpmorgan.com

and regional), recycled plastic prices, including PET, natural HDPE, and colored

Raquel Betesh

HDPE, D3 RIN prices, natural gas prices and sorted office paper prices. Note that

(1-212) 622-1313

landfill-derived RNG qualifies as a cellulosic biofuel under the RFS, generating raquel.betesh@jpmchase.com

D3 RINs that are primarily sold to obligated refiners/importers needing J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

compliance credits. The front-month Henry Hub natural gas futures contract

(contract size of 10,000 MMBtu) serves as the baseline commodity value for RNG.

Sorted office paper is a read-across for WM’s Secure Information Destruction

(SID) business, which provides secure document, hard drive, and media

destruction, representing ~33% of Stericycle and ~LTMSD% of enterprise

revenues. As a reminder, the sensitivity of OCC/recyclable commodity price

changes to our waste coverage varies by company. On an annualized basis, a $10

per ton change in the blended average single-stream commodity price leads to an

EBITDA impact of ~$25MM and ~$11MM for WM and RSG, respectively. For

WCN, management has commented in the past that a 10% change in the value of

the basket of recycled commodities is ‘=> $20-25MM’ of annual revenue impact

with high flow-through.