South Africa Economics: Where We Stand

Research evidence excerpt

South Africa Economics: Where We Stand

Idea

June 10, 2026 04:00 AM GMT

RMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary LimitedMSouth Africa Economics | EEMEA Andrea Masia

Economist

Where We Stand Andrea.Masia@rmbmorganstanley.com +27 11 587-0820

Exhibit 1 : Uncertainty around the global

Following still elevated oil prices, monetary policy tightening growth outlook; for now downside risks appear

from the SARB and growing expectations that other G4 central contained

banks will follow, we provide a short overview of where we 6.0 Real GDP Growth Across Alternative Scenarios

5.0

stand from a South Africa macro perspective. 4.0

South Africa enters the second half of 2026 with a tougher macro mix: growth is 3.0

2.0

softer, inflation is higher and the SARB has turned more hawkish. It is important to 1.0

emphasise that the reform agenda and compression in risk-premium remains intact, 0.0

even as the near-term operating environment is more difficult, more uneven and -1.0

2026E 2027E 2026E 2027E 2026E 2027E 2026E 2027E 2026E 2027E 2026E 2027E

more margin-sensitive than it was three months ago: Global CEEMEA South Africa US Euro Area China

Baseline US Aggregate Demand Shock US AI Productivity Boost

• We forecast real GDP growth of 1.2%Y in 2026 and 1.6%Y in 2027, with Global Oil-Led Recession Permanent Oil Premium Regime

higher energy prices, tighter monetary policy and weaker household Source: National Statistical Agencies, Haver, Morgan Stanley Research

spending weighing on activity. Recent flooding adds marginal near-term Note:AggregateGlobalexcludesAggregateTurkeyexcludesand Egypt.Turkey, Egypt and Argentina. CEEMEA

downside risk. Fortunately, fuel supply stress appears contained and Q1 data

surprised to the upside.