China Autos Industry Two positives amid domestic shortfall

Research evidence excerpt

China Autos Industry Two positives amid domestic shortfall

Asia Pacific Equity Research

10 June 2026

China Autos Industry

Two positives amid domestic shortfall

• May sales back to seasonal trends, but domestic still seeing little sign of Head of APAC Auto Research

improvement: CAAM’s release of May auto sales on Wednesday yielded little AC Nick Lai

surprise for investors. Very weak domestic PV demand (-23% yoy, -24% YTD (65) 6801-3176

to May) was probably the main reason for the auto sector’s weakness - MSCI nick.yc.lai@jpmorgan.com

China Autos is down 13% in the past month, versus the MXCN’s -7%. Our base J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private

case is for domestic PV demand to fall 15% this year (with potential downside), Limited/ J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific)

followed by little recovery in 2027. In contrast to the very slow domestic Limited/Limited J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong)

demand, we see two positive developments:

Jiajie Shen, CFA

• Positive 1 - Exports remain robust: Overall car exports were up 69% yoy in (86-21) 6106 6352

May, leading year to May up 63%. On the back of very solid overseas demand, jiajie.shen@jpmchase.com

we recently raised our forecast for China’s total export volume to 9.5mn units SAC Registration Number: S1730520030006

this year, up from 7.1mn last year or ~40% yoy growth. Indeed, in our analysis J.P. Morgan Securities (China) Company

(click here, “China Auto Export Tracker”), we noted two structural shifts in the Limited

export business: 1) geographical, towards Europe, and 2) technical, towards Cathy Liu

NEV in particular PHEV relative to BEV. In May, NEV again accounted for (852) 2800-8629

over half of China’s PV exports. cathy.xiao.liu@jpmorgan.com

• Why do overseas customers choose Chinese NEVs over global brands? In J.P.