US Large Cap BioPharma Our Thoughts On The Evolving (And Increasingly Complex) IBD Market

Research evidence excerpt

US Large Cap BioPharma Our Thoughts On The Evolving (And Increasingly Complex) IBD Market

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

10 June 2026

US Large Cap BioPharma

Our Thoughts On The Evolving (And Increasingly

Complex) IBD Market

Pharmaceuticals — Major &

Specialty

Chris Schott, CFA AC

(1-212) 622-5676

christopher.t.schott@jpmorgan.com

With significant ongoing development in IBD and following a number of recent Ethan Brown

updates (Tremfya ramp, ABBV & JNJ combination updates, obefazimod Ph3 UC (1-212) 622-4928

ethan.brown@jpmchase.com

maintenance data, upcoming TL1A data, etc), we wanted to provide our thoughts

Hardik Parikh, CFA

on how we see the ~$35bn+ market shaping up. Overall, in the near-term, we see

(1 212) 622-2875

Skyrizi and Tremfya remaining the clear best-in-class / preferred first-line assets hardik.k.parikh@jpmorgan.com

into the late 2020s / early 2030s and forecast relatively balanced share gains Taylor Hanley

between the two. The most meaningful pending pipeline assets in the space include (1-212) 622-0790

JNJ’s Icotyde (which could show injectable IL-23-like efficacy in an oral format), taylor.hanley@jpmchase.com

the TL1As (which we see playing a role post IL-23 at this point) as well as ABBV/ Ekaterina V Knyazkova, CFA

JNJ’s IL-23 combinations (which would further raise the efficacy bar in the space). (1-212) 622-9576

ekaterina.v.knyazkova@jpmchase.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

And as we think about emerging competition, we do expect market share gains for

new competitors to be gradual (as evidenced by IL-23s holding mid-teens to low-

20% market share 4 years into their launch, despite a compelling overall profile)

with the standard-of-care in IBD shifting toward combination regimens longer-