Downgrade: Fairly valued, await better entry

Research evidence excerpt

Downgrade: Fairly valued, await better entry

Macquarie Equity Research Press Metal Alum

Global aluminium deficit to widen

Related reports:

The Macquarie Macro Strategy team (Commodities desk) expects the global aluminium• Desk Strategy - market to move to a larger deficit of 0.82Mt for 2026 on the back of continued Middle

Schrödinger's Ceasefire

Eastern supply disruptions. Prices in the near-term are expected to continue rising and

• Desk Strategy peak in 3Q26 before potentially easing through 4Q26 and into 2027 as the market becomes

- Commodities marginally looser. From 2028 onwards, the market will shift back into a structural deficit as

Compendium: Flooding the supply growth remains insufficient to meet secular demand fuelled by the energy transition.

field

How about Alumina?

Our Commodities desk now expects the global alumina surplus to largen to 2.2Mt for 2026

and a sustained surplus into 2027 and beyond. However, the alumina market has historically

been self-correcting through supply-side adjustments which will lend support to prices. Based

on their analysis, unexpected production cuts, the commissioning of large-scale new projects,

and changes at marginal capacities give rise to a recurring cycle of supply adjustments and

market rebalancing. Prices thus remain capable of showing significant volatility in response to

supply disruptions or sudden shifts in the surplus-deficit balance.

West Asia conflict in context

Our above assumptions are predicated on two possible scenarios as outlined by our Chief

Economist Ric Deverell in his March economic outlook; firstly, the war will be over by end of

March with little economic damage (60% chance), and secondly, the war continues through

to the end of June, with the global economy skirting recession (40% chance).