Italian Banks: A good deal for ISP and BPER

Research evidence excerpt

Italian Banks: A good deal for ISP and BPER

Equity Research

European Banks

9 June 2026

Italian Banks

A good deal for ISP and BPER

We reinforce our positive stance on ISP and BPER as for both

the announced MPS deal creates value. We present the

illustrative deal math of three deal potential deals (ISP-MB, European Banks POSITIVE

BPER-MPS and BBPM-MPS-MB), and they look accretive for all European Banks

banks involved. Paola Sabbione

+39 (0)2 6372 2579

paola.sabbione@barclays.com

We have commented on the M&A announcements from BBPM, ISP and Unipol-BPER in this note BBI, Milan

(08-06-26), which can set the scene to recap the key events of the past weekend. Here we report

Dibin Meledath Koruthu, CFAISP / Unipol conference call feedback and run our illustrative deal math. We conclude that for

+ 91 (22) 6175 2514

ISP and BPER an acquisition of MPS would create value, with limited execution risk for

dibin.meledathkoruthu@barclays.com

shareholders. Similarly, the proposed merger of equals for BBPM is more stretched if we run our Barclays, UK

analysis with BBPM as acquirer at the MPS current price (13% higher than Friday's close, Figure

12 to be compared with Figure 1 in the above mentioned 08-06-26 note), while it leads to an

even larger potential EPS accretion if we run our analysis with MPS as the buyer (Figure 13, to be

compared with Figure 2 in the above-mentioned 08-06-26 note); in both cases, we believe it

would be a solid combination, but with ISP's outstanding offer it might be more complex to

deliver.

ISP investment case strengthens. ISP plans to acquire the former MB perimeter (inclusive of a

13% stake in Generali) and 625 branches from MPS. This deal allows ISP to retain: 1) its