U.S. Large-Cap Banks: Jason Goldberg's Bank Brief | Volume 23, Issue 103 | 6.9.26

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. Large-Cap Banks: Jason Goldberg's Bank Brief | Volume 23, Issue 103 | 6.9.26

d somewhat with an increase in layoff

expectations and a decline in job finding expectations. Expectations about future credit

access, households’ financial situation, and delinquencies all deteriorated. Specifically,

perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago remained largely unchanged, with a greater

share of households reporting that credit availability was equally easy or difficult. Expectations

for future credit availability deteriorated, with a lower share of respondents expecting it

will be easier to obtain credit in the year ahead. The average perceived probability of

missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months rose by 120bps to 12.6%,

staying below its 12-month trailing average of 12.9%. This increase was mostly driven by

those with at most a high school degree and with annual household incomes below $100,000.

The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on savings accounts will be higher

in 12 months decreased by 210bps to 24.6%. Perceptions about households’ current financial

situation compared to a year ago deteriorated, with a larger share of households reporting

a worse financial situation, marking the highest reading since Jan 2023, and a slightly

smaller share of households reporting a better financial situation. Year-ahead expectations

about households’ financial situation also deteriorated, with an increase in the net share of

households expecting a worse financial situation. The net share of households expecting a

better versus worse financial situation in one year is at its lowest level since Oct 2022.

Capital-markets Conditions

Capital continues to get raised to fund AI buildout. Article in today’s WSJ titled “Wall Street Is