Late Fresh 6/5: Jobs-Lining up with Residential Rent Growth Finding a Floor

Research evidence excerpt

Late Fresh 6/5: Jobs-Lining up with Residential Rent Growth Finding a Floor

REITs

Lodging - Market Weight

Manufactured Housing - Market Overweight

Mortgage REIT - Market Weight

Net Lease - Market Weight

Retail - Market Weight

Late Fresh 6/5: Jobs-Lining up with Residential Rent June 5, 2026

Growth Finding a Floor

The Wolfe Byte

The Wolfe Research daily or "Fresh" as we like to call it provides analysis on names in our sectors that we find

stock impacting, estimate updates, and earnings reports. We also include daily news on a real time basis that we

think moves stocks. Enjoy!

We highlight Jobs report.

●Jobs increased by 172,000 in May trending at TTM y/y 0.4% (see Exhibit 1) with prior month revisions and hourly

wages coming in at roughly 3.4% y/y in May (Exhibit 2).

●We think this has the following implications:

○The jobs increase is well above the consensus with our economics team forecasting 105k jobs added and

street of 95k (see here for the payrolls preview note)

○As we write, the ten year has risen slightly to over 4.5.%.

○From a subsector/single stock perspective, we think recent weaker job prints has the following

consequences:

■Jobs are correlated to employment growth in many CRE sectors (see Exhibit 20 of our June 2021

initiation, which we can send on request). It appears that TTM job growth is leveling after a long

deceleration (see Exhibit 1 below). We think this is part of why recent residential updates have

improving year over year performance (see here). In short, stabilizing job growth combined with falling

supply has led to an end of decelerating residential rent growth.

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