Strong start to FY3/27, new MTP the next focus

Research evidence excerpt

Strong start to FY3/27, new MTP the next focus

e expectations recently. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz seems to be

having no major impact on air forwarding at present.

WATCH: Next MTP

One of the themes of the current MTP (covering FY3/23–FY3/27) is building

management foundations, and we think that this has been basically achieved,

as sales from mobility, healthcare, and B2B2C consumer goods (the three

areas of focus for Mitsui-Soko Holdings) have grown to more than one third

of total sales in the logistics business. We believe these three areas will

remain the chief focus in the next MTP that begins in FY3/28. We think the

dedicated healthcare facility in the Kansai region scheduled for completion inSenior Analyst Katsuhiko Suzuki

+81 3 6202 8632 katsuhiko.suzuki@mizuho-sc.com February 2028 (total investment around ¥7.0b) and the dedicated healthcare

facility for in Kanto region scheduled for completion in April 2031 (total

Click here for ESG on investment around ¥15.0b) will be key elements in underpinning earnings

our entire coverage growth. For shareholder returns, we expect the company to incrementally

raise its dividend payout ratio from 30% to 40% during the life of the next MTP.

MEASURE: Price objective based on FY3/27 EV/EBITDA

Our price objective is based on our FY3/27 EBITDA estimate and an EV/

EBITDA multiple of around 10x (the average of Bloomberg consensus

estimates for the 15 logistics companies under our coverage). We previously

applied an EV/EBITDA multiple of around 8x to our FY3/26 estimate but now

raise our target multiple to reflect increase in the average for the companies

under our coverage.

Consolidated results and forecasts Share Price: ¥3,844 (4 Jun) 52wks: H ¥4,390 L ¥3,407

Term Sales YoY OP YoY RP YoY NP YoY EPS PER EV/EBITDA