Vail Resorts Inc: 3Q26 Recap: Lower estimates as snow hangover overshadows strategic actions

Research evidence excerpt

Vail Resorts Inc: 3Q26 Recap: Lower estimates as snow hangover overshadows strategic actions

ley Research, Morgan Stanley Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull,

Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 8

Jun 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here

BULL CASE $210.00 BASE CASE $147.00 BEAR CASE $70.00

Shredding Coasting Slipping

~11.5xourFY27EbullcaseEBITDAof$876M ~9.2xourFY27eEBITDAof$846M ~8xourFY27EbearcaseEBITDAof$633M

Stronger revenue growth vs. base case We assume LSD-MSD% revenue declines in Pass sales decline in F27 in a recessionary

driven by greater uptick in skiing '26 from difficult weather followed by environment with pricing power limited.

participation and additional pricing power. +MSD-HSD% growth in ''27 as weather Visitation declines in FY26 from weather but

EBITDA margins expand in FY27 as sales normalizes and strategic initiatives take limited recovery seen in FY27 given mix

growth drives positive operating leverage hold. Visitation is down -LDD% in 2026 headwinds, elevated churn, and continued

and productivity initiatives bear fruit. followed by LDD% growth in 2027, though weather challenges. Margin deleverage

Multiple recovers to recent historical range remains ~3% below 2025 levels. EBITDA occurs and multiple declines. Share

with accelerated growth outlook. margins decline in 2026 with visitation but repurchases cease. Multiple de-rates as

we expect recovery in FY27 and FY28. secular concerns limit future growth

opportunities.

Morgan Stanley Research 5