Argentina Sovereign Credit Strategy: GDP Warrants: In Search of a Deal

Research evidence excerpt

Argentina Sovereign Credit Strategy: GDP Warrants: In Search of a Deal

Idea

June 9, 2026 09:05 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMArgentina Sovereign Credit Strategy | Latin Simon Waever

America Strategist

Simon.Waever@morganstanley.com +1 212 296-8101

GDP Warrants: In Search of a

Deal

Multiple factors suggest we may be getting closer to a

resolution on the GDP warrants, either partial or in full. We

think this would unlock further near-term upside across both

GDP warrants. Even in absence of this, we expect the legal

momentum to remain, bringing upside but over the longer term.

A complete review of the Argentina EUR and USD GDP warrants: The GDP

warrants have performed strongly this year and have seen high investor interest. In

this note, we bring legal developments up to date, update our valuation framework

(including assessing the value of future years), and address investor FAQ.

All in, we still see upside across both EUR and USD warrants: Our view remains

that there is value in both GDP warrants, a view we've held since February 2025. Yet

it's also the case that they are quite distinct trades with different risk-reward

profiles and thus suitable for different investors, even though they would benefit

from some of the same catalysts.

• The EUR pitch: At 12 cents, the near-term value comes from Argentina

seeing it in their interest to settle ahead of an external bond issuance, either

as a partial settlement for the 8 cent final 2013 ruling only or a more

complete settlement that could involve an exchange into bonds. The YPF

lawsuit win, which removes a potential US$16-18 billion liability, the

settlement with Attestor/Bainbridge, the IMF comments, and the prior

attempt at a tender in 2016 all suggest to us a full settlement is a credible

scenario.