U.S. Data Pulse: April Trade: Capital goods imports continue

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. Data Pulse: April Trade: Capital goods imports continue

UpdateM

April Trade Details: Continued increases in real exports of

petroleum products

The overall trade deficit in April narrowed to $55.8bn from $56.5bn in March. The surplus

in services reversed the uptick from March and was recorded at 27.8bn$, 1.7bn$ less than

the prior month. There was also a decrease in the goods deficit of $2.4bn to $83.7 bn.

Exhibit 2: The real exports of petroleum products has risen In the goods trade details, real exports were up 1/2pct pt on a m/m

in the March and April trade data basis. The category we are watching closely is how exports of fuels,

specifically petroleum supplies have been changing in the context of

Real m/m change in exports (%, SA)

35% the oil disruption, and the April data showed that the real exports of

30% Ind Supp Petrol&Products

25% petroleum supplies continued to be very strong. On a m/m basis, the

20% seasonally adjusted exports of petroleum products were up 29%,

15% after a 32.7% increase in March. Meanwhile, the overall real exports of

10% industrial supplies have shown softening.

5%

0% In real goods imports, the imports of capital goods equipment

202510 202511 202512 202601 202602 202603 202604

-5%

continues to be strong as the advance trade data had indicated. As in

-10%

-15% prior months, the increases were driven by rise in the non-electrical

machinery, which includes computers & peripherals and

Source: Census Bureau, Haver Analytics, Morgan Stanley Research semiconductors. The weaker spot in imports continues to be in

consumer goods. On a real basis, imports of consumer non-durables

remains lower than the levels in 2024.

Exhibit 3: Within real capital goods imports, the imports of Exhibit 4: The real imports of consumer goods are running at a