EU Oil & Gas Valuation and sensitivity screens at the 100-day marker

Research evidence excerpt

EU Oil & Gas Valuation and sensitivity screens at the 100-day marker

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

10 June 2026

EU Oil & Gas

Valuation and sensitivity screens at the 100-day marker

One hundred days since the beginning of US/Iran conflict, a clearcut pathway to European Oil & Gas

ACde-escalation and Hormuz re-opening remains elusive. We therefore take stock on Matthew Lofting, CFA

EU Majors’ valuation, performance metrics and publish sensitivities across (44-20) 7134-6301

$80-120/bbl Brent. 1) Absolute performance is +15% USD since the conflict matthew.lofting@jpmorgan.com

began, though share price highs were in April. Recently, the group has recently Tianyu Wu

exhibited a stronger correlation to 1-2Y forward O&G prices rather than (more (44-20) 3493-1281

volatile) spot markers; 2) Marked to current forward strips, a 2027 FCF yield tianyu.wu@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

estimate of 10.4% is broadly in line with the 10Y average. The sensitivity around

that is ~150bps per $10/bbl and, under prolonged $100+ scenarios, forecasts allow Specialist Sales contact details:

for the re-emergence of energy windfall taxes in Europe; 3) Our fundamental

Ian Mitchell - Specialist Sales -

valuation methodology is 50/50 2027 P/E ($75 Brent) and NAV which European Energy

incorporates a lower half of the historic range 15% fair value discount. This implies (44-20) 7134-1356

average TP upside potential of 10% plus positive leverage to the case for ian.e.mitchell@jpmorgan.com

embedding higher risk premia into mid-term O&G prices owing to an overt Middle

East dependency to effective spare capacity. Our OWs seek names which we

believe possess competitive O&G price leverage and distinctive quality