JPM Mining Daily Iron Ore +0.3%, Spodumene +3.0%, Vale Site Visit, Nickel Dashboard, China Steel Channel Checker & More

Research evidence excerpt

JPM Mining Daily Iron Ore +0.3%, Spodumene +3.0%, Vale Site Visit, Nickel Dashboard, China Steel Channel Checker & More

e catalyst for the sector. For more nickel and metal-

related research, see Greg Shearer and team’s report here (link).

China Steel - Channel checker

China steel exports in May +5% vs Apr’26 & -2% YoY; Approaching TRQ

implementation timeline could pose downside risks to run-rate

~122Mt annualised China steel exports in May’26, +5% MoM: reported China steel

exports for May (10.3Mt) were +5% MoM (122Mt annualised) but -2% YoY (-3Mt), with the

pick-up in export vs Jan-Mar consistent with normal seasonality. Based on the latest data, we

estimate 5M’26 China steel production at ~414Mt, which suggests total steel exports are

tracking at ~11% of total YTD production. For 2026/27, JPM estimates China steel

production at 1,000Mt/990Mt, which JPM has assessed includes ~60Mt of unreported steel

production (link). We forecast China's steel exports at 107/104Mt for 2026/27. This appears

consistent with 5M’25 data, where 5M’25 steel exports of 45Mt at ~42% of JPM's estimated

China steel exports for 2026.

EMEA Metals & Mining

Base Metals Supply & Demand Tracker: Chinese exports are the relief valve for ex-

China aluminium tightness, diverging copper demand trends

JPM Commodities Research team (led by Greg Shearer) published its latest base metals

supply & demand tracker (link). In copper, the team notes that Chinese end-use consumption

fell 4% YoY in April (+1.2% YoY YTD through 4M’26) amid continued weakness in

renewables installations and white goods, while apparent consumption increased 9% YoY on

inventory draws following the Q4’25/Q1’26 buyer strike. On US copper tariffs, our

colleagues' view remains that it is likely that the Trump administration will enact an