SABIC Agri-Nutrients Co. Alternative export routes ramping-up but urea prices under pressure

Research evidence excerpt

SABIC Agri-Nutrients Co. Alternative export routes ramping-up but urea prices under pressure

J P M O R G A N CEEMEA Equity Research

09 June 2026

SABIC Agri-Nutrients Co. Neutral

2020.SE, SAFCO AB

Alternative export routes ramping-up but urea prices Price (09 Jun 26):SRls130.50

under pressure ▼Price Target (Dec-27):SRls141.00 Prior (Dec-27):SRls162.00

Sabic AN commented during its recent conference the call that it had begun

exporting urea via the port of Yanbu on Saudi’s west coast in May and that it was CEEMEA Chemicals and Healthcare

currently exporting ~40% of capacity via this route. Moreover, Sabic AN indicated Alex Comer AC

that it was expecting exports from the west coast to reach ~70% of capacity in the (44-20) 7134-5945

near future. Furthermore, Sabic AN also indicated that its plants were running at alex.r.comer@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

full capacity, suggesting significant inventory will be on hand when the SOH

finally opens. However, urea prices have been in free fall in recent weeks as

demand has dried up with seasonal weakness and in response to high prices, weak Key Changes (FYE Dec)

crop prices and improving supply. The consultants Argus suggest that the latest Prev Cur Δ

Indian tender will yield prices substantially below USD 500/ton. The market is also Adj. EPS - 26E (SRls) 9.48 8.09 -14.6%

expecting material Chinese urea volumes to become available in coming weeks, Adj. EPS - 27E (SRls) 12.93 11.22 -13.2%

further undermining prices. This suggests the market could yet be awash with urea

Style Exposure

through the seasonally weak summer demand period should the SOH open as

Chinese exports become available. Every USD 100/ton move in urea has a USD

400-500m impact on Sabic AN’s EBITDA assuming unhindered exports and