BMO Metals Brief

Research evidence excerpt

BMO Metals Brief

June 5, 2026

Global Commodities

BMO Metals Brief Global Commodities

Helen Amos Analyst

helen.amos@bmo.com +44 (0)20 7664 8180

 2026 gold outlook: Metals Focus published their annual Gold Focus report, giving an overview of

the year to come in the gold market. Supply growth is expected to remain resilient, with mine George Heppel Analyst

production rising by 2.4% driven especially by Ghanaian artisanal activity, while recycling supply george.heppel@bmo.com +44 (0)20 7664 8106

is expected to grow by 5% to its highest level since 2011; conversely, demand is expected to fall

Alona Yunda Senior Associate slightly, as persistently weak jewellery demand and lower y/y central bank buying is balanced

out by a 15% y/y rise in physical investment flows. Overall, Metals Focus expects the price to alona.yunda@bmo.com +44 (0)20 7664 8122

average $4,920/oz in 2026, equivalent to a rest-of-year average of ~$5,032/oz, based on the Walid Hasanzadeh Associate

expectation that policymakers will tolerate elevated inflation rather than sacrifice growth. walid.hasanzadeh@bmo.com +44 (0)20 7872 1565

 Asia gold demand subdued as India buyers stay cautious, ETF outflows recorded: Gold demand in Legal Entity: BMO Capital Markets Limited

India remained weak this week as buyers stayed on the sidelines amid volatile prices, with

dealers quoting discounts of up to $87/oz—down from $106/oz last week—according to Reuters. LME Index (LMEX) The end of the wedding season and higher import tariffs have further dampened retail demand,

6,100

while India’s gold ETFs saw their first net monthly outflow in a year in May. In China, premiums 6,000

eased to $7–$10/oz as physical demand softened on rate hike concerns, while Hong Kong and 5,900

Japan saw gold trading at par or a slight discount.