JPM Credit Card Trust Tracker May 2026 Preview

Research evidence excerpt

JPM Credit Card Trust Tracker May 2026 Preview

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

09 June 2026

JPM Credit Card Trust Tracker

May 2026 Preview

Consumer Finance

Richard Shane AC

(1-415) 315-6701

richard.b.shane@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

We are previewing the May 2026 monthly credit card master trust data (which we

anticipate will be released Monday, June 15th). We expect early & total DQs to The authors wish to thank Prakhar Rai, of

improve modestly M/M, primarily driven by the denominator effect of higher

the J.P. Morgan Global Research Center,

balances. We expect NCOs to improve M/M across issuers. May typically shows

for contributions to this report.

modest growth in asset balances as consumer spending rebounds heading into the

summer months. Chase Spending Data1 showed spending growth in May (+4.8%)

moderated slightly vs. April (+5.0%), though spending has remained elevated in

recent months amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty. As a result, we expect

asset balance growth may outperform historical seasonality. However, the typical

credit tailwind from tax refunds and softer spending in prior months may begin to

wane (click here for our Chase Spending note and here for disclaimers and

methodology).

• NCOs expected to improve across issuers. In the last 10 years, the NCO rate

for the JPM Trust Tracker Index has averaged 4bps of improvement in May.

Based on historical trends, we expect NCOs to improve 7bps for both AMXCA

(AXP) and COMET (COF).

• Early DQs & total DQs expected to improve modestly M/M across issuers.

Historically, delinquencies tend to improve in May, driven by a denominator

effect of higher average balances and strong collateral performance (slower

growth and tax refund benefits in the prior months). In the last 10 years, the