Avis Budget and Hertz See Fleet Restraint and Pricing Leverage as Playbook Into FIFA World Cup 2026; Tactically Prefer HTZ Over CAR; Stay UW Both on 6-9 Month View

Research evidence excerpt

Avis Budget and Hertz See Fleet Restraint and Pricing Leverage as Playbook Into FIFA World Cup 2026; Tactically Prefer HTZ Over CAR; Stay UW Both on 6-9 Month View

ics layered on top. Geography will be a key

factor, as rental penetration will vary materially by host city depending on transit

infrastructure. In markets with affordable and frequent rail or bus service to stadiums,

rental attachment is likely capped, while in suburban stadium markets, sprawling metros,

and cities with weaker transit options, rental cars become the natural default. We see the

North American footprint falling into three buckets: (1) sprawl/drive markets including

Dallas, Atlanta, Miami, LA, Houston, Kansas City, Guadalajara, and Monterrey, where

suburban stadiums should push more demand into rental; (2) transit-substituted markets

such as Philadelphia, NY/NJ, Boston, SF, Seattle, and Mexico City where venue-level

conversion is more limited but regional and multi-day travel still benefits rental demand;

and (3) smaller-fleet-pool markets—like Toronto and Vancouver where strong transit

access is offset by tighter local supply, amplifying RPD on incremental demand. With

~60% of matches located in sprawl/drive markets across the three countries (Table 2WorldCupMatchDistributionandRentalCarAtractivenesbyLocation), the

tournament’s North American footprint screens structurally favorable for rental

conversion.

• Leaning into pricing over volume is likely the prudent approach. The demand uplift

is clear (HTZ recently cited 40%+ y/y rental demand growth in host cities) but it’s arriving

against a fleet base that operators have intentionally maintained tight, reflecting both

improved discipline and balance sheet constraints that have necessitated a more

measured approach to capacity.